Just Released! Order “Waking Up to Climate Change” by George Ropes, and receive 25% Discount. Learn More

HOME          CATEGORIES          OUR TAKE

The New Wave of Climate Refugees From Puerto Rico

An article last week on the dire status of Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria said to expect one of the largest mass migration flows to the United States in recent history. Reporters Daniel CusickAdam Aton predicted tens of thousands of storm victims will flee the island to start new lives in the United States and will join other “climate refugees” from southernmost Louisiana and the shrinking islands of Alaska’s Bering Strait. Yesterday, (Oct. 2) Jake Godin of abc2news.com concurred that climate change is on course to create more refugees and mass migrations and “sudden-onset disasters like floods, storms and wildfires displace an average of 21.5 million people every year worldwide.”

https://image.slidesharecdn.com/climaterefugeestalkintlstudies9-150929034421-lva1-app6892/95/climate-refugees-uncertainty-and-insecurity-3-638.jpg?cb=1443498675

Here at ClimateYou we think the estimated 200,000 refugees the article cites is probably based on 5% of 3.4 million rounded up. How realistic is that likely to be? Very hard to say, especially given the still unknown speed, scale and efficacy of the Federal disaster relief effort. Latin family ties bind, so many Puerto Rican U.S. residents will help out, either with recovery/rebuilding or support for temporary or permanent immigration to the States. Another factor is the economic: job prospects here versus there. PR economy was hurting, anemic, long before Maria, the government was/is bankrupt. The U.S. economy has largely recovered from the 2008-’09 great recession, if unevenly. The Fed is cautiously optimistic about US growth going forward; it has started winding down its balance sheet after a long period of pump-priming; the stock market remains buoyant amid growing skepticism that Trump’s campaign-touted tax reform and infrastructure agenda items will ever be enacted. How much of PR industry survived the storm is still unknown. How much capital investment will “relief” entail? Probably very little. Here at ClimateYou, we expect a long, very slow economic recovery, which will exacerbate the ‘push’ immigration factors. It’s unlikely PR’s agriculture will rebound very far or fast. Maybe a few more light industry tax-free zones in food or clothing processing/finishing might have to happen. Island economies face tough constraints; many products and raw materials have to be imported by sea or air, and finished products exported, both of which raise costs. There’s tourism, but PR has been out-branded, out-invested, out-promoted, and out-drawn. Possibilities for tourism development exist — tropical weather, beaches, Old San Juan, relative proximity, especially for East coast Americans who come to PR where English is fairly widely spoken, no currency conversion needed, no visa nor passport required. It would take a few years, but it’s doable. There are a few hurdles to surmount (too near, too de-classed, foreign but not foreign enough), but should be doable, and would provide PR with long-term economic viability. First-blush guess at political implications of an influx of Puerto Ricans mainly to NY, NJ, and FL (in FL, anti-Castro Cuban influence would be diluted), would favor Democrats, especially if Trumpian/Republican relief effort is perceived as too little, too late, too racist, too grudging, too inadequate entirely to the scale of the humanitarian crisis, as is already starting to be seen. Our bet is the 200,000 refugee inflow estimate will prove to be low; it could easily double.

Comment on this article

ClimateYou moderates comments to facilitate an informed, substantive, civil conversation. Abusive, profane, self-promotional, misleading, incoherent or off-topic comments will be rejected. Moderators are staffed during regular business hours (New York time) and can only accept comments written in English.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


The reCAPTCHA verification period has expired. Please reload the page.

SHARE THIS ARTICLE


More Posts Like This

OUR TAKE

Youth Activists Triumph in Groundbreaking Climate Trial

A landmark legal decision has overwhelmingly justified every human being’s right to a healthy environment. The huge victory by young climate activists in Montana is a win for young people all over the world whose future will undeniably be shaped by the effects of climate change. The case,

OUR TAKE

Losing our Coveted Trees to Floods

In the great aftermath of major flooding last week here in the Hudson Valley 30 miles north of New York City, towns and villages are recovering from torrential rains that dumped six to seven inches in an already saturated region. Roads dissolved under water. Streams, lakes and rivers

CITY TECH BLOG

The Dominican Republic Takes Part in the Paris Climate Change Agreement

The Dominican Republic, located in the Caribbean, is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to its geographic location and heavy dependence on agriculture, fisheries, and tourism. The country is also prone to natural disasters such as hurricanes and floods, which are becoming more frequent and